Yes it’s April, and unfortunately yes we are still talking about the possibility for snowfall. I am watching a strong system that could bring severe weather to WNC on Friday morning, and then snow showers on the backside as the front stalls out over the Apps. Below you can see the most recent GFS models, and it illustrates stout backside development as an upper level low goes negative tilt over WNC. That will pull moisture back around the rotating surface low, and then hammer the mountains of WNC. We do not see storms this strong every year, so some surprises could be in store.
6z GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Flash Flooding Concerns Increase Friday AM
The first part of this system will be the front end thump of rain from a strong moisture transport. When these upper level lows get involved, heavy precipitation totals can mount up quickly! Below for comparison you can see the GFS precipitation totals through this weekend compared to the Euro. Both show a significant amount of rainfall.
6z GFS Precipitation Totals Through Sunday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
0z Euro Precipitation Totals Through Sunday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
As you can see, both show over 1.5” of rainfall for WNC, and most all of that falls on Friday am. Therefore, I believe that streams and rivers around the area could rise quickly Friday morning. Please be careful when traveling around the area, high water will be possible in some areas!
Will It Snow In Asheville?
Signs are beginning to point to one last snowfall event around Asheville, but the snow doesn’t appear to fall heavy enough to accumulate in valley areas. In the higher elevations I believe that a couple of inches will be possible, but temperatures down in the valley will not support accumulation. I am still waiting on short range models to get a handle on exact surface temperatures, but below you can see a representation of what could possibly unfold.
6z GFS Snowfall Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Check back later tonight on the AshevilleWX App for a live update around 8pm, or then shortly after on Facebook!
