I have been watching the progression of this system for the past several days, and backside moisture looks to be available with this system to produce some backside northwest flow snow showers. Its been close to a month since we have had any type of northwest flow activity, but with this strong low pressure developing off the Atlantic Coast.. this appears to be a good setup for elevations above 4000’ to pick up a couple of inches.
Rainfall Likely Tomorrow
Rain will push through the area early tomorrow morning, and that could fall as snow in the highest elevations on the Appalachians. 850mb temperatures though will be moderate until late in the day Thursday when they drop below freezing. That is when the chance for snowfall will increase. Below you can see a depiction of the most recent NAM 3km run and how the precipitation progresses. Notice the popcorn type precipitation that develops late in the day Thursday in ETN. That will likely be convective moisture, and we could see some convective snow showers move into WNC late Thursday night.
12z 3km NAM Precipitation Depiction For Next 60 hrs Courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com
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Accumulation??
Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km snowfall map, and you can see that a widespread 2”-4” will be possible above 4000’ on the NC/TN border. a dusting cannot be ruled out in valleys below early Saturday morning.. but I will need to continue to watch model trends to nail down exacts.
12z 3km NAM snowfall Totals Through Friday AM
High Winds Likely Thursday Night Into Friday
As the low pressure undergo’s the bomb cycle and turns into a “bombcyclone” in the Atlantic, winds will really pick across WNC. Below is another image from the 12z 3km NAM showing the wind gusts possible early Friday morning. Things will feel like winter again with gusts over 35mph! It would be wise to secure anything outside before Friday night if possible. Join me live tonight at 7:30pm in the Ashevillewx app and facebook for an update regarding the most recent model information! See you then!
