A strong overrunning piece of moisture will move through WNC beginning on Tuesday, and as heavy precipitation moves in Tuesday evening, many could switchover to sleet or snow. Models continue to change each run with small, but important changes. I am tracking the warm nose at 700mb high in the atmosphere, and that will determine if heavy snow falling through that layer will melt or not. This layer is the warmest layer in the atmosphere Tuesday evening, and will determine if precipitation falls as rain/sleet/or snow for your area. Our cold air is going to be provided by a high pressure to the northeast and as that cold wedge sets up, just how far SW into WNC its pushes has yet to be determined. Below you can see my initial forecast map regarding how I think Tuesday night and into Wednesday will unfold. Eventually Wednesday morning most locations will switch over to only rain.. but cold air damming events can be stubborn and more prolonged compared to what models project. This map is subjected to change over the next 48 hours but I wanted to give you an idea of my thoughts moving forward. Join me live tonight in the AshevilleWX App at 7:30pm where I will detail out the most recent model data, and give my my current thoughts on the approaching event.
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Flash Flooding Threat Increasing
Long range models continue to paint a scary picture regarding the amount of precipitation that will move through the southeast over the next week. Many of the models believe that some locations could see over 10” of rainfall through next Sunday. This will most certainly cause streams and rivers to come out of their banks around the area, so please make preparations and be mindful that flooding is a real possibility next week. Below is the most recent 7 day precipitation total projection map from the GFS.
12z GFS Precipitation totals courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Join me live tonight at 7:30pm in the AshevilleWX App as I discuss the next week in weather!
