Today and tomorrow around WNC should be beautiful, but winds could be gusty in some locations. Looking ahead towards the weekend, I have my eye on two separate storms that will bring rainfall to the area. The first will move in on Saturday morning and should persist through the early afternoon. I am expecting around a half inch of rainfall for most from this system. Then another system will push through on Sunday and into Monday where a half inch to 1” of rainfall will be possible. Some isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out with this rainfall, so please be mindful of that.
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More Precipitation On The Way
Following this weekend, it appears that we will move back into a wetter pattern (did we ever get out of it?). On Tuesday another system of overrunning precipitation will affect WNC. Some models have had wintry precipitation associated, but others are too warm. The cold air for this system would be provided by Cold Air Damming and some models believe the cold wedge will be stronger compared to others. A lot of uncertainty still remains with this system which is why I have chosen to focus right now on the precipitation amounts instead of snowfall potential. Over 3” of rainfall looks possible by this time next week, and that will increase the flash flooding potential around WNC. Streams will rise over the weekend, and won’t have much of an opportunity to recede since these systems will be back to back to back. Below you can see the projected precipitation totals through mid next week per the most recent GFS. You can see that areas to the SW of Asheville stand a much better chance of seeing excessive rainfall, but widespread 2.5” totals are possible with these three combined precipitation events.
12z GFS Precipitation Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Will There Be Snow With The Last System?
Some long range models have shown the potential for wintry weather next Tuesday, and that cannot be ruled out.. but temperatures are going to be very close. Depending on how strong the high pressure to our north is will determine how strong of a cold wedge sets up. Join me live tonight at 8pm in the AshevilleWX App as I discuss the coming week in weather, and give you my latest thoughts on early next week!
