Rain will continue to be the theme around WNC as we progress through the early part of this week. Several areas saw close to an inch of rainfall this weekend, and another half inch+ is likely through Tuesday evening. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run that depicts how much precipitation is to be expected through early Wednesday morning.
GFS Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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How Much Rain Will Fall?
The European model has similar totals of rainfall through Tuesday evening, but has an even higher precipitation maximum in SW WNC compared to the GFS. I expect locations like Andrew/Murphy & Franklin to see a good portion of rainfall with totals well over 1” through Tuesday evening. The southwest flow will likely enhance this rainfall and the moisture will get squeezed out as it approached those SW WNC locations. Below is the European model precipitation totals through Wednesday AM.
ECWMF Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will Flash Flooding Be A Concern?
For SW WNC, some locations could see flash flooding, but around the Asheville area I believe the threat for flash flooding will be minimal. This front moves through relatively quickly, so there’s really not a great amount of time to wring out the atmospheric moisture. Ponding on the roadways is possible, but streams out of their banks looks unlikely. One thing that does appear certain is that winds will pick up as the front passes.
Gusty Winds Likely Wednesday AM
Winds will really pick up around WNC as the frontal passage exits the area. Temperatures will also drop into the mid to upper 20’s around WNC on Wednesday morning. With winds gusting over 30mph in many locations and even over 50mph in the high elevations, Wednesday will not be a great day to be outside. Below you can see the GFS projected temps for Wednesday AM.
GFS Wednesday Temps Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Wind Chills In The Teens Wednesday AM
Wind chills will drop into the teens around WNC on Wednesday AM, so if you must be outside on Wednesday make sure that you are properly bundled up and that exposed skin is covered. During the afternoon Wednesday we will recover into the low 40’s, but it will still be a very brisk day. Below you can see the wind chills projected by the GFS. 17 degrees around Asheville and even colder around the Boone area!
Wind Chills Wednesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Large Uncertainty Remains For Next Weekend
There is great uncertainty as we move forward regarding the weather around WNC next weekend. The GFS has a total different solution compared to several other long range models, but it has been consistent. Right now the GFS shows a large upper level low bombing out off the NC/SC coast. Typically that would mean some form of snow for WNC. As of this mornings run, the Euro had the storm, but was much less amplified. The amplification and track will need to be watched over the next several model runs to determine if this is a legit threat next weekend. Stay tuned for more information, as we are just in the pattern recognition phase regarding the weather for next weekend.
