Our second chance for high elevation snow showers will come as a front passes through the area on Friday morning. There is some disparity currently as to how exactly this system with traverse the area, but it does appear that precipitation will fall across WNC Thursday night and into Friday. Elevations above 3500’ could see this precipitation fall in the form of snow. As of now, I am not expecting anything too significant.. but models will need to refine a solution before I raise my confidence. Below you can see the precipitation depiction from the ECMWF and it brings a wave across the mountains of WNC with a sharp cold front behind it Friday AM.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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In comparison, here is the GFS at the same time period. It is worth noting that the GFS has been all over the place with this system. From a coastal low, to a weak wave pushing through, this model has thrown out several wild solutions out over the past few days… therefore my confidence in what it shows coming to fruition is even lower.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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How Much Rain To Expect
As of right now, precipitation looks as if it will be minimal with most models showing it being strained out on the NC/TN border. If the front does indeed take that path, then minimal precipitation is what will be expected. If the front takes a deeper south path, and ends up developing into some sort a coastal low, then more precipitation will move in from the Southwest. So, several variables here on the table, and this is the first real complicated storm to forecast for the mountains of WNC.
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What To Expect?
Continue to check back here, I will do more updates regarding this system. Right now, it appears to be mostly rainfall for anyone below 3500’-4000’. The better chance for high elevation snowfall in my opinion would be a strength low to our north, with backside Northwest Flow snowfall falling Friday am/mid afternoon. As we get closer to Friday morning, I will discuss snowfall totals in the higher elevations, but right now you just need to know that the chance is possible if you live above 3500’ in WNC.
