All halloween plans may not be lost around WNC with the speeding up of the frontal passage currently occurring. Models lagged this system into the evening hours on previous runs, but now appear to have the rain clearing WNC by 5-6pm. That will be perfect for trick-or-treaters! So, if you have early plans on Halloween, it would be wise to have rain gear.. but as we progress towards sun down, the rain chances will dramatically decrease. But take a jacket, it will get cold! Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km model progression. Note the time stamp in the top right hand corner and you can see that the front is out of WNC by 5pm on Thursday.
Nam 3km simulated radar courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Don’t Cancel Plans Just Yet
The front will just be clearing as many Halloween festivities begin, so if you can set them up in the rain then let the party go on! I will caution you on the setup though, winds will be picking up and some severe weather is possible as the front passes. So if thunder roars, head indoors! Early trick-or-treating may be questionable, but I expect this front to be out of WNC by 6pm, so just hold off a bit before you head out!
Flash Flooding Could Be Possible
I am beginning to become increasingly concerned about flash flooding along the Blue Ridge Escarpment here in WNC. Models continue to enhance the flow as it moves in from the southwest, and in turn that wrings out excessive precipitation along that area. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km precipitation totals through Friday AM, and those precipitation maximums of 6”+ along the NC/SC border are what really have me concerned.
Nam 3km Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Wet Soil Already Along Blue Ridge Escarpment
It is already very wet in locations like Lake Toxaway, & Brevard and this system will not help the drying out process. This will help the drought concerns though. But too much rain at one time can lead to flash flooding in the area. Please be mindful of this as you make plans for this evening and Thursday.
Cold Front To Follow
Temperatures in the upper 20’s are possible Friday morning around WNC as the frontal passage makes it way through. Below you can see temperature change on Thursday night and it is dramatic!
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Elevations Above 5000’ Will Likely See First Snowflakes
After this front passes, backside moisture will strain out along the NC/TN border. This will likely bring the first snowflakes of the season to locations above 5000’. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km precipitation type map from late Thursday night. Notice the frozen precipitation on the NC/TN border. That is what I am keying on, and will continue to watch as models progress.
