A disturbance in the Pacific Ocean currently appears to develop further and eject north into the Gulf of Mexico. As this system moves towards the Gulf States, it could pick up some steam and pressure could drop. So what does this mean for WNC? Well some of our best rain makers come from the Gulf of Mexico, and right now we could really use one! The European model (shown below) shows this system making landfall as a weak Tropical Disturbance sometime late Saturday/early Sunday AM.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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How Much Rain For WNC?
Through Monday the European model only shows .5” or so, but I believe those totals could change once models get a better hold of how exactly the system will unfold. Typically when tropical moisture moves in from the Gulf, Southwest flow enhances it as it reaches the base of the Appalachian Mountains. This in turn wrings out the moisture from a given system. Below you can see the most recent European model precipitation projection through Monday morning.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
The GFS is also showing this chance for rainfall, but brings the rainfall in earlier on Saturday compared to what the European model shows. Below you can see that depiction.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
So we are still kind of in a wait and see pattern for exactly how much rain will fall, but it appears likely that the system in the Pacific that currently has 50% chance for development will indeed affect WNC. This rainfall is much needed because of the current drought situation around WNC. Many locations are in moderate or even severe drought, and it will take several inches of rainfall to push them out of drought conditions… so hopefully this will come to fruition.
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Frost Likely Tomorrow & Friday AM
Frost is likely tomorrow and Friday morning as brisk fall air moves into the area following the frontal passage that occurred today. Winds have picked up, and could gust over 40mph in some locations around WNC. Temperatures around WNC will drop into the 30’s and it will feel like winter tomorrow am! Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km temperature depiction for tomorrow morning and it shows a low of 38 degrees at the AVL airport.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Fall Will Be In Full Swing Following Cold Front
The fall color around WNC should reach a vibrant peak in the next 2-3 weeks, depending on your location. Areas above 4500’ will be peaking this weekend, and then I expect to see that color trickle down into the valleys below over the following two weekends. I will update my fall peak forecast map shortly. In the meantime, you can watch the fall color change on the AshevilleWX Live Webcams linked below!
