Weather models continue to suggest that heavy rain will move into the area late tonight and into tomorrow. With multiple rounds of rainfall possible, upwards of 2” or more could fall on many locations around WNC through Friday night. This will be problematic for streams and rivers that are still draining from the heavy rain we received last week. Similar flooding appears to be possible, though I don’t think the rain will fall as heavy as what occurred last Thursday into Friday. Still though, the French Broad River remains high, and it will not take high rainfall totals to push it out of its banks again.
3km NAM Total Precipitation Through Friday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Timing
Rainfall has already moved in in many locations as a baroclinic leaf protrudes ahead of the main front. This moisture will stream in throughout the morning tomorrow before some clearing occurs Thursday afternoon. The upper level low will begin to progress towards WNC Thursday night, and some isolated storms could be possible Friday morning. Most models (like above) show around 2” of rain falling over the next 60 hours, so please be prepared to move to higher ground if necessary.
Backside Snow?
Some locations could briefly switch to snow as the Upper Level Low exits, but the chances for snow with this system really anywhere is dwindling. With a quick exit out to sea, limited backside moisture will be available for higher elevation northwest flow. Some locations could see snow showers Friday night into Saturday, but accumulation will be very limited. The main story with this system will again be the rainfall.. Join me live at 8pm as I discuss what the radar shows, and what to expect as we move forward.
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