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Florence Heading North
Current short range models indicate that WNC only has 6 or so more hours of rainfall to endure from form Hurricane Florence. Rainfall totals around the area do not appear as though they will be as high as what model initially indicated, but flash flood warnings are currently up for Southwestern McDowell County. Northwestern Rutherford County, Eastern Henderson County, Western Polk County, &Eastern Buncombe County… All locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Models show that a more northern track will now occur with Florence, and will keep more moisture from inundating WNC.
Flooding Can Still Occur..
Over the next 6-12 hours, flooding is still possible, but it does appear that major rivers around the area will stay in their banks, especially around Asheville. Please be careful when traveling around WNC, many evacuees are attempting to return home and traffic is heavy. Ponding on the roadways has also slowed traffic, so please limit your frustration and be glad that you are only experiencing heavy rainfall.
Rainfall Ending
Below you can see two model depictions of Flo moving out later this evening. Both short range models believe that the western movement will halt, and a more northern steering component will take over. This means heavier rainfall for locations like Greensboro and north, but less rainfall for areas in the Western part of the state. This storm has been unpredictable from the beginning, so this should come as no surprise that the track has changed.
HRRR Model
12z NAM 3km
Stubborn Gusty Winds Could Persist
Models do not move Florence’s winds out as quickly compared to the rainfall. Gusty winds could persist until late in the evening Monday or even Tuesday for many locations. These gusts could top 40mph in higher elevation locations, so please be mindful of that. Trees can still be toppled, and power outages can still occur, even after the rainfall moves out. Luckily, many have been spared.. and power seems to be available to most.
