A relatively mild week looks to be on tap for Western North Carolina as many scurry around to finish up final bits of holiday shopping, and teachers pull their hair out before Christmas Break. Through Wednesday we appear to remain dry with partly cloudy skies overhead. Temperatures will push into the 50’s each afternoon, and the cold that nips in the morning will subside. More rain is on the way though.
Rainfall Moves In Thursday
A strong upper level low pressure system will make its way through the Southeast on Thursday, bringing with it the chance for more rain, and even some isolated flash flooding. Snowfall on this front end does not appear to be likely since temperatures will be in the 40’s when precipitation moves in. However on the backside, some snow showers appear to be possible. Another inch of rainfall looks to be likely through Friday around WNC, and that will push us even closer to breaking that all time record. It is going to be very close, but I am not sure that we break the record.
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Snow Showers Possible Friday Into Saturday
6z GFS Precipitation Depiction Late Friday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
As this strong system exits to the northeast, a deformation feature will develop on the backside, and that has the potential to move through WNC. These features are always extremely difficult to model, and WNC typically doesn’t receive anything significant from a storm exiting in this manor, but it bears watching due to the volatility of the pattern. I certainly expect favored Northwest flow areas above 3000’ to receive accumulation, but below that it is hard to tell without short range model data. So the main takeaway is to note that I have my eye on Friday & Saturday for a minor winter event. I am not expecting significant snow accumulation, but some accumulation cannot be ruled out, especially within 15 miles of the NC/TN border. Check back soon for another update and have a great day!
