Storms Likely Tomorrow AM

A strong front that will bring tornados to parts of AL, MS, & TN tonight, will make it way towards WNC tomorrow morning. Its a bit difficult to nail down timing exactly, but my best guess is that the line of storms will move through between 6am-8am. It could be a tad later though for some locations. The main threat in my opinion will be straight line wind damage. A tornado cannot be totally ruled out, but the timing and weakened atmosphere will be very limiting factors. In fact, I expect the storms to somewhat dissipate as they move over WNC. Locations farther SW like Murphy & Andrews, NC stand a much better chance of seeing damaging winds/tornadic development compared to Asheville. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km, and it has the line falling apart over Asheville around 8-9am tomorrow morning.

18z 3km NAM Radar Depiction At 10am Tuesday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

I am expecting a half inch or more of rain for most out of this line of storms, but it will be moving very quickly so I believe flash flooding will be minimal. Some power outages could occur due to gusty winds, so please keep that in mind.

Another Front Moves Through Friday

Long range models indicate that another front will move through WNC on Friday, bringing with it the chance for more rain and possibly storms. High elevation snow showers will also be possible as northwest flow moisture streams in on the backside. Temperatures should get down close to freezing again for most locations in WNC, and it will feel winter-like.

Pattern Change Looks Likely Mid Next Week

A winter like pattern has been manifesting itself on the very long range model images, and many times that can lead to very cold temperatures in the Southeast. Some models even show something wintery, but it is still way too far out to speak in those terms. What you need to know is that cold temperatures look to be on the long range horizon, and you should get your big coat ready!