Wow, it’s hard to believe that I am writing about an extended freeze in May here for the mountains of WNC, but here we are, and it has happened before. Two shots of cold will be what I am watching for, and you will certainly need to find that frost protection over the next few days to get your plants ready. We are several days out from when these frontal passages look to move through, so things can certainly change.. but all major global long range models have WNC dipping down below freezing for several nights beginning this weekend.
Model Data
At this point in time I focus on what models like the GFS, Euro, & Canadian show. I have been watching this cool down for several days with some fear, because I know the effect it will have on crops. So bear with me as I forecast this cool down and prepare you for all aspects of the two systems over the next 10 days. Below you can see the GFS model and what it projects temperature-wise for early next Saturday morning.
GFS Temperatures Saturday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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As mentioned above, I like to see what various models show, so I will walk you through my progression. Next up we will evaluate what the European model shows at the exact same time frame next Saturday morning.
Euro Temps Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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And then one more for comparison is the Canadian model depicted below.
Canadian Model Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Is This Normal?
No… this is not normal for WNC. In fact our last freeze last Spring happened in early April and normal temperatures for next week would be in the 50’s for the morning. Perfect weather to plant all of your tender crops usually… but not this year. If you have them in the ground already, consider contacting a local gardening store like L.O.T.U.S for frost protection fabric. Below I have a neat map that shows the temperature departure from normal projected by the GFS for Saturday morning of next weekend. Thats right, some locations could be 30 degrees below normal next Saturday morning. Temperatures will stay 20 degrees below normal all day Saturday, and it looks to be a not so great Mothers Day weekend unfortunately.
Temperature Anomaly Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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High Elevation Snow Likely Again
Another round of high elevation snow is already showing up with the backside cold that will be moving through on Saturday. I expect snow showers to break out along the NC/TN border for elevations above 4000’ late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Harsh winds will also accompany this front, and this will likely cause tree damage in locations where snow begins to accumulate. A few flakes can even not be ruled out in elevations below 3000’. I am watching this system very closely, it could potentially bring some surprise flakes even down into some populated valleys. We are still several days out so I will have plenty more information and updates coming your way regarding this front. Below you can see that the GFS is already showing accumulating snowfall possible through Saturday afternoon in those high elevations. I will need short range model data to get the best handle on the upper level low and its progression, but the fact that long range models are already indicating this possibility is disturbing in my opinion.
GFS Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Long Range Warm Up?
It doesn’t look likely in the next 10 days, but when the flip does switch I expect us to go to 90’s very quickly. Normal highs for WNC in May are in the 80s so highs in the 50’s-60’s will just damage plant cycles and delay harvests. Below you can see what the GFS shows in the very long range as a morning low 10 days out. Yes this can certainly change, but the fact that it isn’t shows 50’s-60’s is very concerning and is certainly an indicator that we will stay below average. No worries though, stick with AshevilleWX and I will let you know when it is safe to get all of your plants into the ground!
GFS Temperatures For Morning of May 12… Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
