Long range models have been keying on the possibility for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico, and now the NHC is giving Michael a 90% chance for development over the next few days. There are a lot of factors to consider though with this forecast.

1. How will Michael interact with the trough that will be moving across the central portion of the US.

6z HWRF inner nest radar depiction Wednesday Morning

2. How strong will Michael be when it makes landfall on the Gulf Coast?

3. Will Michael move through WNC after it makes landfall?

4. How cold will it be after the cold front passes through next weekend?

Michaels Landfall

Above you can see the 6z NAM 3km simulated radar depiction. There is a bit of moisture showing up in Mississippi and that would signify the front coming through. This front will be what pushes Michael back out to sea. So it’s a huge player. Depending on how far west Michael moves will determine how much rainfall WNC receives.

Michaels Impact On WNC

so models depict Michael moving directly over WNC (GFS). Others (Euro) believe that the trough will be too strong and that will sweep Michael out to sea quickly. So what were are dealing with is a classic tropical setup. The trough sweeping across the US will sweep the storm out to sea.. but when? Will the trough finally catch the storm when it reaches NC like the GFS states, or will the trough catch the storm just after landfall and sweep it out much quicker. These are the difficult details to nail down, but they are crucial to the end forecast. We will have a better idea in the next 36 hours regarding the development of Michael, so please stay attentive, and check back soon for another update!