Northwest Flow To Bring Another Round Of Snowfall To All Of WNC Monday & Into Tuesday
Part 1 & 2 of this storm have come and gone, now let’s focus on the backside Northwest flow that will move in early Monday morning. Several models have this flow extremely juiced up, with both the NAM & HRRR models dropping over 3’ of snow in isolated high peaks in the Smokys. It will be interesting to see just how much accumulates at places like Clingmans Dome & Mt. Leconte. Many valley locations around Asheville will also see accumulating snowfall from this flow, but models are somewhat spread on just how much will fall. Below I have put together a projected snowfall accumulation map for the area based off of what I believe to be possible.
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Timing
Snow showers will arrive on the NC/TN border in the early morning hours of Monday, and this flow will persist until sometime Tuesday morning. Heavy snow will be likely, especially if you live above 3000’. This heavy snow though will break containment periodically and snow showers will drift into the Asheville area. Models will need to continue to refine data, but as of now I am thinking that Asheville could see a couple of inches of accumulation from this backside energy. Check out the progression on the NAM 3km below.
NAM 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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HRRR Model Data
The HRRR model is dropping several feet of snow for the highest elevations of The Smoky Mountains. This flow is one of the strongest signatures I have seen in a long time and it is going to hammer someone. Winds will gust over 50mph in those high elevation locations, and they will even gust over 40mph in valley locations. Check out the depiction from the most recent HRRR model.
HRRR Model Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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High Winds For All Of WNC Monday PM
Winds will really begin to pick up around WNC as the afternoon progresses tomorrow. Elevations above 3500’ will see gusts over 50mph and in valley locations we will likely see winds gusting over 40mph as the sun sets. With blowing snow, conditions will be dangerous to travel so please be mindful of this. Rush hour could be somewhat dicey around WNC. Below you can see the winds projected by the NAM 3km Monday night. Notice how it shows peak gusts in the low 50’s at the Asheville Airport. This could simulate Blizzard like conditions for a few hours with enough snowfall.
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Conclusion
A high end Northwest flow snowfall is set to begin early Monday morning around WNC. Winds will gust over 60mph in elevations above 5000’ with gusts over 50mph above 3500’. In valley locations close to the NC/TN border, heavy snow will fall throughout the day on Monday. Banding features associated with a deepening low pressure will create for a beautiful scene around the area, but as night falls roadways will become treacherous. It would be wise to be where you need to be by 6pm tomorrow evening. Power outages could be possible from these winds as trees fall due to the weight of snowfall. This event will feature several resurges of moisture through by way of Northwest flow and these pushes will break containment. I see this happening at least 3 times between early tomorrow morning and early Tuesday AM. These resurges will push all the way into the Upstate of SC and Piedmont of NC and could even bring a surprise snowfall to areas outside of the mountains. This event could bring many surprises so stay vigilant. Make sure to report your snowfall to the AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook!