Mid March Cold Snap To Kill All Budding Trees

The fate of most buds around WNC seems pretty much sealed as all models show WNC dropping into the low to mid 20’s on both Tuesday and Wednesday AM. With most models projecting temps in the low 20’s, even high end frost protection will not suffice. Some locations could even drop into the teens, especially locations above 3000’. Snow showers will also be possible for many over the next 36 hours. Ill elaborate below.

Low Temps For Tuesday AM NAM 3km

Below you can see the 12z NAM 3km low temps for Tuesday morning. This is the coldest of the models, but does show the range at which temps can drop. I’ll also show what the GFS model is showing as well for Tuesday morning. Also remember that Wednesday morning is projected to be slightly colder.

GFS Model Tuesday AM Low Temperatures

Snow Showers Possible For Many Through Tuesday AM

Convective snow showers are likely to develop in East TN sometime tomorrow and these will move towards WNC. Higher elevations will see snow throughout the day and some of these convective snow cells could break through the higher elevations and bring valley locations like Asheville a quick burst of snow. Below check out the most recent HRRR model run. You can see those streamers develop tomorrow afternoon and that will likely bring snow to many locations around WNC.

Snowfall Accumulation?

I think locations above 3500’ could see 1"-3” of snowfall accumulation from this system, but I am not optimistic at the moment about accumulation below that threshold. If snow does break containment and is heavy enough, a quick dusting could be possible but I would expect it to melt quickly. The main story from this front will be the cold.

Wednesday To Be Colder Than Tuesday AM

Most models suggest that we will be even colder on Wednesday morning compared to Tuesday around WNC. Below you can see how the European model dips into the very low 20’s on Wednesday AM. This will be a serious frost and will likely kill any blooms that have already manifested. If we were going to stay in the upper 20’s I would recommend frost protection, but since most models suggest temps going into the low 20’s and the best frost protection only protecting into the upper 20’s I wouldn’t suggest wasting the time. This is extremely unfortunate, but is expected since we began seeing bloom outs in late February.