Long Range Models Turn Cold, But Storms Expected Beforehand

Several of the long range models are show a devastating cold front moving through during the middle of March. This is expected, but not hoped for since many of the area fruit trees are already in bloom. This unfortunate false spring will have devastating consequences on local apple crops, and things would really go downhill if we were to get a heavy snow. Below you can see the CPC analog of the upcoming 8-14 day timeframe. It is showing the likelihood of unseasonably cold air during that time period.

As you can see above, the air that is projected to move through the area will be significantly colder than the average air we experience at this time of the year. Thus, I am expecting the chance for many crops to be damaged. Check out the European Ensemble temperature regime for the next two weeks. There is very little doubt in my mind that we will see a devastating freeze during the middle of March. Now is the time to begin preparing if you need to protect large areas of budding fruit.

You can see how this model suggests that by the middle of next week we will return to much more seasonable temperatures. I’ll certainly have more on this later as some models even indicate a last gasp shot at snowfall, but I am hesitate to trust any model after what happened 3 weeks ago..

Storms To Move In Tonight & Then Another Round Friday

Below you can see what the most recent NAM3km projects across WNC. As you can see rainfall will move in around Midnight tonight and reside by sunrise. Scattered showers could be possible tomorrow during the day, and another round of storms is likely sometime mid day on Friday. Isolated high winds and lightning could occur.