2020 AshevilleWX Fall Color Forecast-Beautiful Leaf Season In Store
Those cool, crisp evenings have already started to grace our presence here in the mountains of WNC, and you know what that means? Fall and fall color are just around the corner! This year, several factors will play into another vibrant leaf crop for all to enjoy. Below I detail out the peak spots to see fall color around WNC, and when you should go! I also cover my basis for projecting a 7/10 on the AshevilleWX Leaf Vibrancy Scale.
Peak Color Map
Fall Forecast
Several models indicate that a relatively normal end to September appears likely for WNC, and that would include a few more cold fronts as we progress through the month. These cold fronts are one of the main factors in leaf change because cold temperatures are what causes the leaves to change color and die. Of course, those higher elevation locations will experience leaf change quicker, mainly due to cooler temperatures at those locations.. but also a lack of oxygen. I believe we have roughly 3 weeks as of now (September 10th) before we begin to see locations above 6000’ start to show peak color. This should happen around September 30th if we have a few more cold fronts move through.
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The Beginning
Fall color will begin to peak at the highest locations in WNC on approx September 30th. This includes all locations above 6000’ in WNC. These dates are of course not certain because nature isn’t certain, they are only approximations based off of current weather model trends, and past average peak data. As the peak begins to occur around the beginning of October in locations like Clingmans Dome & Mount Mitchell you won’t see very vibrant photos. This is due to low oxygen levels at those altitudes. Conifers thrive above 6000’, but typical trees that leaf out struggle to survive. As we progress through October though, trees below 6000’ begin the leaf change process.
Best Time To Visit WNC To See Color On Blue Ridge Parkway
If I had to pick a time to visit The Blue Ridge Parkway to experience the beautiful fall colors, it would be the week of Oct 7-13 or Oct 14-20. Locations like Boone, NC which is close to Linn Cove Viaduct (Pictured Below) will be in peak color during this time frame, and wonderful pictures are to be taken during these weeks at various elevations. If you are planning to visit Grandfather Mountain, these will also be the best weeks to experience fall color (especially early in this time frame). If you are visiting Asheville during these weeks, the valley locations will not be in peak color.. but a short drive North to Craggy Gardens, or South to Graveyard Fields will quickly get you into that peak color that you are looking for. Be careful though, the Parkway will be crowded and Covid-19 precautions should be taken.
Linn Cove Viaduct Taken By Meteorologist Hunter Ward On October 10th of 2015
Best Time To Visit WNC To See Color Around Downtown Asheville
It is sort of a tricky question when people ask me when they should visit WNC to see fall color. Usually my next question is, do you want to see color around Asheville, or in the higher mountains. Usually the higher mountains are the preference, but vibrant fall color can be found around Downtown Asheville typically during the week of October 21st-October 27th. If you are seeking advice on when to visit Asheville, these dates or later will be best for color around town.
Photo Taken October 26th Just North of Asheville By Meteorologist Hunter Ward
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Weather Model Data
The two main long range models that I observe when forecast long range temperatures are rather mild for the next several weeks with many average weeks mixed in. Therefore, I am forecast that fall color will occur at the typical time that it has over the past 30 years. In the past 2-3 years, we have experienced later then usual changes, so some of these dates might seem a bit soon.. but if average comes to fruition, my forecast should verify give or take a few days. Below you can see both the CFS model and the Seasonal European model. Both are not cool moving into October, but neither are they extremely warm.
Euro Fall Seasonal Forecast Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
CFS October Temperature Forecast Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Short Range Models
The European model also has very mild temperatures for the next 10 days with another cold shot expected around September 20th. This will kickstart those high elevation leaves, and could also begin to turn a few young trees in elevations above 4500’.
10 Day Temperature Spread Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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