Excessive Rain Likely As Front & Isaias Collide Over NC
Tropical storm Isaias has been moving through the Atlantic Ocean for the past several days, and will eventually make landfall sometime Monday along the SC/NC Coast. Though this storm will likely move through the interior of NC, a frontal boundary that will position itself over WNC will bring excessive rainfall to the area through Tuesday afternoon. Below you can see a depiction from the NAM 3km of what could possibly unfold over the next three days.
Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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How Much Rain Are We Talking?
Well over an inch of rainfall is possible for most locations through Tuesday, and that will fall on already saturated ground as most areas received over an inch of rainfall on Friday evening. There is a spread among the models though, and some like the Nam 3km think the rainfall will be more isolated compared to other like the GFS. Below you can see the most recent GFS total precipitation map for NC. A large swath of 1”+ totals have manifest over WNC through Tuesday AM.
GFS Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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When Will This Move Out?
Well pop-up showers will typically be possible for some on a hot WNC summer afternoon, but the excessive fuel for storms will push out of the area on Tuesday per the most recent model data. In fact, the Euro is showing seasonable temperatures for the next 10 days that are slightly below average! It appears as though the 90’s will subside for WNC momentarily as a tropical wave passes by and clears out the heat dome that has been present for so long. Below you can see the 10 day temperature spread from the European.
10 Day Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Effects From Isaias
WNC will not see any effects from the tropical core of Isaias, but Isaias will enhance the front that will move over the area in the next several days. Therefore it is an indirect effect, but we will still be experiencing those tropical like downpours. The coast of SC though could be a whole different story. Isaias looks to make landfall somewhere along the SC Coast on Monday, packing a punch with winds in excess of 65mph. Below you can see a wind depiction for Isaias as it makes landfall. Somewhere along The SC Coast will experience storm surge, and hurricane force winds in my opinion as the storm approaches to end the day on Monday.
3km Nam Projected Wind Gusts For Isaias Courtesy of Weathermodels.com