Severe Weather Likely Today For WNC, Isolate Hail Cannot Be Ruled Out
Severe weather will be possible today across WNC as the Severe Prediction Center has issued a Slight risk for severe weather across the area. Below you can see the most recent imagery coming out of Norman, OK where the SPC is located.
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Timing
After overcast skies clear around WNC this afternoon, fuel will begin to build in the atmosphere as the sun comes out. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km precipitation depiction and timing. The disturbance appears to move through later tonight around 8-9 pm for WNC. This will be a perfect time to check the AshevilleWX Webcams!
NAM 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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So, late this evening you should expect strong storms to push through WNC. There will be the chance for strong winds, hail, and even an isolated tornado. Below you can see the hail risks that the SPC has released for WNC.
A 15% chance of hail within 40 miles of your location in WNC has been issued. This hail could damage early vegetation, and could be dime+ size. Steep lapse rates above your head will play huge into this and we will likely see somewhere this evening see a severe warned storm.
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How Much Rain Will Fall?
It will vary depending on your location, but according to short range models, it appears that locations SW of Asheville, especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment stand the best chance to see over .5” of rainfall from this. So, I am not projecting a washout, but some locations could see some isolated flash flooding as heavy rain/storms push through. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km precipitation totals.
Nam 3km Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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