Flooding Rainfall Expected For WNC On Thursday, Then Another Chance For Snow Showers This Weekend
A strong low pressure system will push into WNC on Thursday morning potentially causing flash flooding problems for many locations. As this front moves through, locations around WNC will likely pick up over 1.5” of rainfall, with isolated locations seeing over 3”. This will quickly push streams and rivers out of their banks in some areas, due to how saturated the current ground already is. As this low moves through, a strong jet stream will set up directly over WNC. These strong jets are known to be very efficient moisture transport mechanisms, and can quickly bring large amounts of rainfall to the mountains of WNC. I’ll show you that jet stream below, but first let’s look at the total precipitation for the next three days portrayed by the most recent GFS.
GFS Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Who Will See The Most Rainfall?
The typical locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment will likely see the highest totals, but locations like Franklin & Andrews will also get hammered by this flow. Even around Asheville I expect a hefty dose of rain that could even push streams and rivers out around town. Thursday morning we could potentially wake up to a mess. Below you can see that Jet Stream that I have been discussing as it sets up over WNC Thursday morning.
500mb Jet Streak Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Northwest Flow Snow Possible Friday For High Elevations
Northwest flow will pick up on the backside, and favored Northwest Flow areas should begin to pick up isolated accumulation sometime Friday morning. Around 1”-3” can be expected above 4000’ on the NC/TN border. Below you can see the most recent GFS model, notice how it produces the streamers along the Appalachian Mountains? Thats a Northwest Flow signature.
GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Another Front Likely Saturday Could Bring Snow To Most WNC Locations
A shortwave front appears to run the trough following the strong storm that brings several inches of rainfall to WNC. This shortwave will likely move in sometime Saturday, and it will be able to take advantage of a cold front that has already laid down really cold air. As it develops on the tail end, some models show a blossoming of precipitation over a frozen column in WNC. Several models indicate this wave to be possible including the GFS, Euro, & CMC models, so the threat has legitimacy. I am just not exactly sure how it will work out though. The European ensemble indicated that an average of around an inch of snow would be possible for the Asheville airport through Sunday morning with some variations showing higher totals. Below you can see a depiction of what the GFS has shown for the past few runs.
Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Small Variations, Big Changes
If this shortwave decides to cut before the Appalachians, this will limit the chance for snowfall around WNC dramatically. One thing that was interesting overnight was how the European ensemble moved towards a more snowfall/less rain event. Today will be an interesting day of model watching, and like last week.. we will need for short range models to get ahold of this system soon to give us the best idea of what is possible. Check back soon for more information and stay dry!!