Updated Projected Snowfall Map For February 20th & 21st
Short range models continue to show accumulating snowfall for a good portion of North Carolina through Friday morning. Below is my most recent updated snowfall projection map. I still believe that a widespread 3”-6” will be possible across WNC as tomorrow progresses. Snowfall will likely begin around 8-10am and should persist throughout most of the day.
Map Is Subjected To Change
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Short Range Model Data
The NAM model continues to illustrate a more moist system moving into WNC compared to models like the GFS, but at this point in time it is time to stop discounting the NAM. It has shown an impactful snowstorm for most of NC for the past 2 days now without wavering. One limiting factor too accumulation could be surface temperatures. If rates do not get heavy enough, the snow could struggle to accumulate. At this point in time, I do believe that rates with be heavy enough for at least accumulation on grassy/elevated surfaces. Below you can see the most recent NAM depiction of the storm and how the precipitation progresses.
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NAM Precipitation Progression Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Another short range model that I like to refer to in these instances is the short range Canadian model. It is showing a very similar orientation of precip as it enters the mountains of WNC. Long range models did not show this northern periphery of precipitation expanding in this fashion a few days ago, but as of now they are all trending in a direction in which that north area of precipitation is somewhat expansive.
RGEM Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Short Range NAM
The short-range NAM has been a little bit shy with snowfall totals as it has rolled out because it is resolving a bit of dry air aloft to begin the event. Over the past several runs that dry air continue to diminish. Here is the most recent 12z run, I will update these with the most recent runs when they become available.
3km NAM Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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SREF Plumes
These are another short range model that I like to use when forecasting an incoming snowfall. Each line represents a different short range model run snowfall total. As you can see there is a great spread still among short range SREF members. What that tells me is that the potential for a surprise 6”+ snowfall for WNC is still certainly there. Do not let your guard down.
Power Outages Possible
If these totals verify on the higher end, power outages are certainly going to be possible here in WNC and down East with how wet the soil is and high winds. It would be wise to have some food and access to supplement heat if possible. I really don’t want to sound to big of an alarm, but the potential for this to be a larger event than many are expecting is certainly there. Look for a live video update sometime tomorrow morning as the most recent model data arrives.