AshevilleWX Initial Projected Snowfall Totals For February 20th & 21st
Short range models continue to bring in a weak low pressure along the Gulf that floods WNC with overrunning precipitation. It is still not certain just how much precipitation will fall, but it is becoming more and more apparent that an accumulating snowfall event is on the way for all of WNC & a good portions of NC. Below you can see my projected snowfall totals as of now. This map is subjected to changed, but at the moment this is my best guess for accumulation.
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Map Subject To Change As Event Approaches
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Most Recent Model Data
Models continue to appear to be playing catch up to the NAM model suite which in my opinion has the best handle on the progression of the moisture. Models like the European model show very limited precipitation and surpress the system far to our south, not allowing that precipitation to blossom north. I am siding with the consistency of the NAM currently though because it has a tendency to detect small features in these overrunning events. Below you can see the most recent NAM snowfall map. Each run it has continued to increase these totals, which much be taken seriously.
NAM Snowfall Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Then here is the progression of the precipitation as taken from the most recent (18z) NAM. Notice how that precipitation really develops over E TN and hammers into WNC. Then there is some backside frontogenises that enhances the trailing precipitation. This could be a long duration event.
NAM Precipitation Depiction courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Lots Of Details Still To Nail Down
This is going to be a very difficult storm to forecast, and there could very well be some surprises with this system. I am going to do my best to provide you the most accurate forecast possible. Some tweaks will need to be made as we progress towards Thursday so stick with me and check back soon for more information. All tune in for a live Facebook update tonight at 8pm.
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