Snow Showers Likely For Many Around WNC Monday
An interesting system will move through the mountains of WNC on Monday and into Tuesday, bringing the chance of snow showers for many around the area. Not everyone is going to see snowflakes from this system, but several valley locations will certainly get in on the action. Earlier I had discussed how we had the chance of experiences some interaction with a Gulf Low and an Upper Level Low. That does appear to still happen Monday, but the surface Gulf Low appears to have sped up just a tad. This limits the amount of snowfall that I believe will be possible along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. I will produce a snowfall map later today for my live update, but here are my thoughts currently on where snow will fall. Watch below as I show you the most recent NAM3km precipitation progression.
Nam3km Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Nam3km Projected Snowfall Map
Below you can see the projected snowfall map from the most recent Nam3km. One thing that really sticks out to me is the stripe of accumulation all the way into Hendersonville. This would indicate that a rather strong Northwest Flow would have to setup to push that snowfall that far out of the high elevations.
Nam3km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Snow For NC/SC Border Counties?
We had talked a little bit about the possibility earlier.. and locations in Translyvania County will want to see an earlier phase with this system. That is something that some models showed late last week, but have since lost over the weekend. I am watching very closely the radar now since the event is so close, and will have a better idea tonight of what to expect along the NC/SC Border counties.
3”-6”+ Likely Above 3500’ Along NC/TN Border
As moisture moves in from the Southwest and then the Northwest, locations along the NC/TN border will once again be in a great location to receive accumulating snowfall. I am projecting 3”-6” for locations above 3500’ along the NC/TN border, and 1”-3” below 3500’.
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Buncombe County Snowfall Possibilities
There is still a great bit of uncertainty as to how much snow will fall around Buncombe, but as much as 1”-3” will be possible in the Northern portion of the county in locations like Weaverville & Barnardsville. As you travel south, once again that snow line will taper. This is unless the models have missed a key detail and an earlier phase occurs, which is possible! If we have more Gulf interaction, more moisture would move in late tonight/early tomorrow morning… increasing the chance for snowfall. Once again, this is a very complicated forecast.
High Winds Likely Monday Night
As the Upper Level Low moves through, winds will really pick up around WNC. Gusts over 35mph will be likely around Asheville, and gusts over 50mph will be possible above 3500’. Below you can see the peak wind gusts as the most intense portion of the Upper Level Low is moving through.
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Live Update Tonight 7pm
Join me live tonight at 7pm as I unveil the snowfall projection map and discuss the current model and radar trends with this current system!