A very complicated weather week is in store for WNC, and this will all lead up to a strong arctic front that will move through the area on Christmas. This front will likely bring a rain changing to snow event for many locations in WNC, and the chance for a white Christmas is possible. Lots of details remain to be hammered out though since we are indeed 7 days away from the front moving through. First and foremost though, I want to take a look at the chance for a light icing event around WNC on Sunday morning.

Sunday Morning Threat

A weak low will make its way out of the Gulf with moderate moisture early Sunday morning. Cold air will entrench itself along the Blue Ridge Escarpment, and isolating icing could occur. Short range models continue to resolve this solution, but below take a look at what the most recent Canadian Short Range Model shows.

notice how that high pressure erodes away slowly as the moisture moves in. That is what is concerning to me. Temperatures at the surface along the Escarpment will hover around 30 degrees, and some light icing could be possible.

High Elevation Snow Showers Likely Sunday Night & Monday

As the front passes by and transfers to the Atlantic, snow showers will pick up above 3500’ in WNC. Some snow showers could break containment of the High Elevations and move into valley areas below, but more information will be needed to make that call. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run depiction.

Now let’s compare that will what the European model is showing. The key to focus on is the Northwest Flow signature that shows up on the NC/TN border as precipitation is exiting out to sea. This is a sign that moisture will be strained out along the Appalachians.

Home Much Snow From These First Two Systems For Above 3500’?

A tricky question, but I think another general 1”-3” or 2”-4” will be possible above 3500’ along the NC/TN border through Tuesday evening. Some details may change with this, but at the moment that is my best guess regarding just exactly what to expect around Boone, Banner Elk, Beech Mountain, and other high elevation locations. It does appear though to be a great week to be skiing!!

Christmas Polar Front Details

No this isn’t a Christmas train that travels through WNC, this will be a wicked cold front that keeps you inside all day on Christmas! A massive lobe of the polar vortex will break of and makes it way over portions of the Southeast. This will bring temperatures on Christmas day of teens in the morning, and only a high in the low 30’s. Not the best weather to try out those new toys. Below you can see a depiction of the arctic front moving into WNC.

Will It Snow At Your House In WNC On Christmas?

7 days out this is still an extremely tough call. These type frontal passages are known as anafronts and are very difficult to predict. I have seen many times the moisture just be too far behind the front to accumulate when it turns to snow. I do however believe that most of WNC has a decent chance of seeing some form of snowfall on Christmas! It could just be a stray flurry or two, but come its snow on Christmas, how often do we even have the chance? The last time WNC saw snow on Christmas was in 2010. This doesn’t appear to unfold like that event, but I am watching each model run and will update you when I have a better idea of how exactly things will unfold!