Northwest Flow Snowfall To Bring First Snowflakes Of Season To WNC
A strong low pressure will make its way up the spine of the Appalachians, bringing with it heavy rainfall for all of WNC Sunday night and into Monday. Following that, backside moisture will move in from the Great Lakes, and that will be strained out along the Appalachians Monday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. Below you can see my snowfall forecast and the great map made by Evan Fisher.
Map Produced By Evan Fisher
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Short Range Models Still Needed
Snowfall totals will vary from model run to model run over the next 36 hours so some adjustment could need to be made to that map, but as of now I think we could see a T-1” of snowfall even around the Asheville area. The wildcard with this Northwest Flow is that it will be aided by a trailed Upper Level Low that will reinvigorate the trough with energy. As the low pressure to our north continue to strengthen and stall, snowfall will continue through the early hours of Wednesday morning around WNC. This will bring a solid 3”+ to ski areas in the Appalachians. Below you can see a depiction of the most recent GFS showing how the system moves through. Join Evan and I live tomorrow night at 7pm for short range data.
GFS Courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com
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Highest Elevations Could See 5”+ Of Snowfall
Some high mountains locations should really rake in the snowfall, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 6” total recorded somewhere in the highest of elevations around WNC. This flow will be aided by incredible fetches of moisture off of the Great Lakes, and some convection could even be possible as some models show when the Upper Level Low moves through Tuesday.
Rainfall Will Affect Monday Morning Commute
If you are traveling to work on Monday morning please use caution around WNC as the beginnings of the frontal passage bring heavy rainfall and around 1” of rain to most. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km totals of projected precipitation.
Nam3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Uncertainty Remains But Another Chance Of Snow Friday/Saturday Around WNC
I still have my eye on next weekend for another shot of snowfall at least for the high elevations above 3500’. Another Upper Level Low will move through WNC and it could have some interaction with a Gulf Low. How exactly this unfold remains to be seen, but I think that a low end snowfall event could still be possible for WNC. What does look certain is the cold that is coming. Temperatures on Tuesday will not push above the mid 30’s around WNC, and that could will be somewhat sustained. Below you can see the most recent European temp spread.
Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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