Another Round Of Rainfall In Store For WNC To End The Week
What once appeared as a chance for snowfall for some has quickly diminished and only rainfall is expected for most on Friday as a front passes through. Some models showed this front lagging a bit and not entering WNC until late Friday which would have been a more favorable temperature profile for snow, but as we have progressed this week.. models have sped up the system. Below you can see the 3km Nam precipitation depiction for the area as the front pushes through.
3km Nam Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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How Much Rain Is Expected?
Rainfall amounts around WNC will vary, but in general I believe a half inch to an inch of rainfall will be likely for the majority of the area. Isolated locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment could see higher totals, but I do not expect flash flooding to be a significant concern though it could be possible around Boone. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km Precipitation Total.
Nam Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Isolated Sleet Possible
With the cold air that will be entrenched, there’s a possibility that isolated locations around WNC could see initial precipitation begin as some sleet. This does not appear to last long though as warm air advection will flood the area with above freezing temperatures. Unfortunately for snow lovers, this does not appear to be the one that will be those accumulating snowfall totals that have been wished for. There is a chance for some backside snow shower activity though.
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Backside Snow Showers Possible Saturday
After the front passes through, an upper level low will run the spine of the Appalachians, and that will bring accumulating snowfall to the high elevations of WNC. How much is still very uncertain, but it does appear that another 1’-3” event will be possible for locations above 3500’ within 15 miles of the NC/TN border. Will Asheville see flurries? It is very possible, but like I said, several details will need to be resolved before I get the best idea on how the flow will approach the area. Below you can see a depiction of the most recent GFS run and what it shows Saturday Evening.
GFS Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Cooler Weather Continues Highs Over The Next 10 Days Only In The 40’s
If you were planning outdoor activities over the next 10 days, it would be wise to include a coat in those plans. Looking ahead on the long range forecast and it does appear that it will stay cold. Below you can see the long range forecast per the European model, and as you can see the high each afternoon struggle to push towards 50 degrees. So we have switched from a period of well above average to now a period of average to below average. And that does appear to be the theme moving into February. Have a great weekend, and bundle up, it will be windy and cold on Saturday & Sunday.
Long Range Forecast Courtesy of Weathermodels.com