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Cold Returns To WNC Late This Weekend As Pattern Change Is On The Horizon

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It appears as though we will go from one extreme to the other with a large temperature swing to begin next week. Models are keying in on heights building in Canada, and that will send down the cold air as we move into next week. Some models even show the freezing line close to the Gulf Coast on next Tuesday Morning! Below you can see a depiction of possible temperatures around WNC for early Tuesday Morning. Yes, those are mid teens! That is going to do some big time damage to plants who have fallen for a false spring with the recent warm spell.

GFS Temps For Tuesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Rainfall Likely Through Thursday AM Around WNC

Several rounds of rainfall are still likely over the next two days as conditions will be ripe for shower activity. A constant stream of moisture will continue to move through until the hose is shutoff sometime during the morning on Thursday. Below you can see a depiction of the most recent NAM 3km precipitation depiction and what it shows regarding rainfall.

Nam 3km Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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How Much Rain Will Fall?

Heavy rain is currently falling across much of the area (8am Tuesday) and that could continue for several hours today. Then showers will re fire into tomorrow, and flash flooding concerns will continue to increase. Below you can see the most recent rainfall totals from the 3km NAM. Between 1”-2” over the next day and a half will be likely around the Asheville area. Locations along the NC/TN border will see even more rainfall as the moisture moves in from the Northwest. Isolated locations along the NC/TN border could see over 3” of rainfall through early Thursday. Flash flooding will continue to be of concern.

3km NAM Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Flash Flooding Concerns Increased For SW WNC

Locations around Franklin & Murphy will see the heaviest rainfall as the band orients itself in a favorable fashion for rainfall to be wrung out in those areas. Totals over 3” would not surprise me through Thursday morning around Franklin as this rain will feel relentless. Please be mindful of this if you live near a stream or river that is quick to rise. This rain is falling heavy at times and those quick bursts can really catch a person off guard if they are not paying attention. Please report any flooding you see to Ashevillewx on facebook.

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Some Models Hinting At Wintry Precipitation Late Friday/Early Saturday

To wrap this article up, I am going to key on the slight chance for wintry precipitation at the onset of a frontal passage late Friday night or early Saturday morning. A high pressure will push in cold air at the surface late Friday night just before a front begins to move in. Those stray showers out ahead of the front will move over the cold surface air, and could create some form of wintry mix on Friday and into Saturday. Other models show that most areas will be too warm for any wintry precipitation to fall. Just know that I have my eye on this and will update you if necessary!

GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

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