Excessive Rainfall In Store To End Weekend, Then Near Record High Temps On Christmas For WNC
A strong Gulf Low will develop today along the Gulf Coast, and then slowly move up the East Coast. Heavy rainfall is expected for WNC as this low pressure traverses the Southern States, and several areas could see flash flooding from this system. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km and it shows pockets of 2”+ of rainfall all around WNC. Notice along the Blue Ridge Escarpment how there are precipitation maximums of over 5” of rainfall. That will be due to upslope Southwest flow that will really enhance as moisture is compressed when it reaches the mountains.
3km Nam Precipiation Totals Through Monday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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How Long Will The Rain Last?
Rainfall will move out early Tuesday Morning as the front exits off the Coast. Over an inch will fall for most all locations around WNC, with over 3”+ of rainfall possible in isolated locations. Locations like Brevard & Hendersonville will see more rainfall compared to Asheville, but locations around Asheville could still see 2” before Tuesday AM. Below you can see the GFS model, and it has finally came into agreement with other models that this storm will indeed push farther north. The European model showed this for several days, and now it does appear to come to fruition.
GFS Precipitation Totals Through Tuesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Euro Shows Flooding Rainfall For WNC
The European model shows upwards of 2.5” of rainfall possible through Tuesday Morning, and that would soak an already saturated ground around WNC. Areas could experience flash flooding if this model is correct. I have my eye on short range models currently, but the fact that the Euro has upped its totals even more after leading the way with this storm is quite concerning. Below you can see the European Model through Tuesday AM.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Near Record Breaking Christmas Day Temperatures Possible
Large temperature swings are no stranger to WNC in late December, but it appears that warm air heading for WNC on Wednesday could nearly break a record. In 2015 the Asheville Airport reached 67 degrees, breaking the previous Christmas Day record high. Currently the GFS model indicates that temperatures could push close to 65 on Wednesday afternoon. Below you can see its depiction of temperatures around 2pm on Christmas afternoon.
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Break Out The Shorts!
Thats right, most models show WNC pushing into the mid 60’s on Christmas Day. Above was the GFS, now below you can see the European model. As you can see, it believes that things will be a bit cooler compared to the GFS, but still sees temperatures making it into the 60’s. This will feel very nice! The record as mentioned above for Christmas Day at the Asheville Airport was set in 2015 at 67 degrees. There is an outside chance that we could match that temperature.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Long Range Volatility
Models have shown a furnace in the long range this week, and they have also shown a significant cool down. So what does appear to be in store for the long range is a great deal of uncertainty. We could be looking at some form of Northwest flow moisture around New Years, but nothing noteworthy is on the models just yet. I will keep you informed though so check back soon for another update!