Snow Showers Likely Above 3500' On NC/TN Border Early Tomorrow AM
A front is currently passing through WNC and dropping over an inch of rainfall on the entire area. This is much needed since we have had a wildfire over the past week in the Shining Rock Wilderness area, and conditions around WNC are very dry. After this front passes though, backside winds will pick up and begin to gust across the area. Backside moisture will bank up against the Appalachians, and northwest flow moisture will being to strain out along the highest elevations. Below you can see a depictions of the most recent NAM 3km and what it shows regarding precipitation around 2-3am tomorrow morning.
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Who Will See Snow Fall?
Mainly locations within 15 miles of the NC/TN border where the elevation reaches above 3500’. Below that, a few snow showers could break containment… but I expect the majority of the flakes to be confined to above 3500’. For some in the high elevations, this will be the 4th or 5th time already that snowflakes have fallen!
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Will It Accumulate Where It Falls?
Above 4500’ I am expected a dusting to 1” of snow to fall. There doesn’t appear to be an extremely strong push of moisture on the backside with this system, so a prolonged northwest flow event is not expected. Below you can see the most recent accumulation projections from the 3km NAM. Even along the highest ridge lines, only minimal accumulation is expected.
Could Asheville See Snow Flurries?
It is very possible that a few flakes could make their way into Asheville in the very early hours of tomorrow morning. These will not be significant, and shouldn’t cause any problems whatsoever if they do happen to push this far into the valley. Winds could gust over 20mph around Asheville and even higher on the NC/TN border. Below you can see the Nam 3km wind gusts around 4am tomorrow morning. As you can see, the winds will be relatively gusty when you wake up in the AM.
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Recap
-Rain tapers off from WNC around 7pm this evening
-Winds will pick up and could gust over 25mph
-Northwest Flow Moisture will strain out along the NC/TN Border tonight
-Dusting to 1” of snowfall is possible above 4500’
-A few snow flurries could make it into Asheville early tomorrow AM