Rain showers are likely around WNC tomorrow as moisture moves in from the South. Cold air damming or CAD will create the potential along the Blue Ridge Escarpment for some icing to occur. Moisture is expected to move in early tomorrow morning, and as cold air is pushed up against the Blue Ridge Mountains, a frozen layer appears as though it will be in place until around 10am-11am. This layer will exist over locations like Hendersonville & Black Mountain, but most likely will not extend over the Asheville area. So the farther south you go from Asheville, the better chance there is to see sleet or some form of freezing rain early tomorrow morning. Below you can see a depiction of the most recent 3km NAM, and as you can see there is some frozen precipitation that shows up over the CAD regions of the Southeast.

You can see, that the window is brief.. but that doesn’t mean that it can’t happen. Lets dive a bit further into this possibility and I will explain a why I see sleet/freezing rain as a possibility in select locations tomorrow morning. below you’ll see the temperatures from the 3km Nam projecting a frozen layer at 8am at the 925mb level or around 2500’ above sea level.

So as you can see above, there will be a layer of air that is around 27 degrees situated over portions of WNC and that will freeze precipitation as it falls through to the ground. This is all due to a retreating high pressure to our Northeast that is providing cold air at the surface layer and slightly above. This cold air will not push all the way into WNC, and many locations around the area, especially north of I-40 will not see the chance for frozen precipitation. Let’s look at another map to show you what the surface temperatures are expected to be around the same time that precipitation could move in.

Around 7-8am tomorrow morning, isolated sleet/freezing rain is possible around locations like Hendersonville, Flat Rock, Lake Lure, Old Fort, Black Mountain, Fairview, and several locations in the immediate Foothills. This will be a typical cold air damming event that is stubborn to erode away in the locations where it sets up at, so please be mindful of this tomorrow morning.

Why Wont Precipitation Fall As Snow?

There is a layer just above 2500’ that will be around 38-40 degrees, and that will melt any snowflakes that will potentially fall through. There is a very slight chance that some locations could see an initial quick burst of snow, but that will be short lived and only due to dry air aloft. Below you can see the temperatures at the 850mb level and if you compare them to the 925mb level at the same time, you can see that there is a 8 degree difference at the Asheville Airport between levels. That will effectively refreeze precipitation over some areas.

Exactly Where Will See Ice?

It’s really difficult to say because it’s not exactly certain where the cold air aloft will push in and set up. The typical areas that usually see some form of frozen precipitation from these type events are to the south and east of Asheville. On rare occasions the cold air will be pushed far enough up the French Broad to make it into Asheville, but I don’t think that occur tomorrow. We have had these type event before around WNC where ice accretion occurs around Hendersonville, but not around Asheville… these type of events are not new, but they are noteworthy and I need to mention them. Please be careful tomorrow morning traveling around roadways south of I-40 tomorrow morning as frozen precipitation cannot be ruled out!

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