Heavy Rain Could Ruin Halloween Plan Around WNC
Models continue to suggest that a slow moving front will push through the area beginning tomorrow, and lasting through the day on Thursday. Most models indicate that the rainfall will persist into early Friday morning, effectively putting a damper on many halloween festivities that will be taking place around WNC. 2”+ of rainfall will be likely for the majority of WNC as this front meanders through the mountains, and southwest flow really enhances. Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment stand a much better chance of seeing flooding from this event, but I can’t rule out flash flooding all around WNC later Thursday. Below you can see the most recent GFS & European models precipitation total projection through the next 3 days.
Flash Flooding Possible
Several days ago we were in a drought, but we quickly seem to be recovering from that.. and the wet pattern continues. This system here could bring many areas out of drought conditions. That is great news!! But with that comes the threat for flash flooding around WNC. With the southwest flow that will set up Wednesday into Thursday, some locations are going to get hammered. Especially along the southern slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. When these system orient the way this particular one appears to, the flow can increase the rainfall in isolated locations. Therefore flash flooding will be a concern as we progress into Thursday. Ponding on the roadways will also be likely as heavy bands of rain move through. This is typical, but can cause quite the trouble on the roadways if one is not prepared. So please be cautious when traveling Wednesday and Thursday around WNC.
When Will The Rain Start?
Around Asheville, look for scattered showers to develop early Wednesday morning, and progressively get heavier throughout the day Wednesday. Then Wednesday night, heavy rainfall could be possible. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km radar depiction for the next 60 hours. It shows a constant barrage of showers for the extended period.
Will This Ruin Halloween Plans Around WNC?
Unless your costume includes an umbrella, or you were planning on going as Jim Cantore, then yes this rain will likely affect your Halloween plans. I know there are several trunk-or-treats and festivals scheduled for the area on Thursday, and it would be wise to get tents prepared, or move those events to Friday evening when the weather looks much more favorable.
Cold Front Headed For WNC This Weekend
A stout cold front will follow this frontal passage into the weekend and cold temperatures will again be likely on Saturday & Sunday mornings. In fact, most locations will dip into the mid 30’s. Below you can see the most recent GFS model and its projection of temperatures for Saturday morning around 8am.