Wet Pattern Continues Into Weekend, Another Inch + of Rain Likely
Another front will move through WNC beginning this afternoon with scattered showers, and will persist through the Sunday morning. This front will absorb a tropical system that moves in from the Gulf, and somewhat stalls over WNC this weekend. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km precipitation depictions. It indicates that significant rainfall could be possible.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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How Much Rain?
Well it depends on where exactly you are located, but the majority of WNC looks to see another widespread inch of rainfall this weekend, with isolated totals of 3”+ in some favored locations along the NC/SC border. Below is the European & GFS models projected precipitation totals through the next 3 days. As you can see a widespread soaking appears to be on tap. Unfortunately, this weekend will be the peak weekend for many locations on the Blue Ridge Parkway, and this rainfall will not make leaf peeping nearly as fun..
GFS Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Drought Relief?
Yes and very much so! Below you can see the most recent drought monitor released Thursday October 25th by the USDA. As you can see, there is some improvement from last week.. but many locations still have drought conditions. In fact, most locations are still considered to be in a moderate drought across WNC including Buncombe County. That is likely to improve between now and the next update with this next frontal passage.
Flash Flooding Could Be Possible
Isolated flash flooding could be possible as excessive runoff occurs under heavy downpours. This could especially become problematic in higher elevation locations that receive more rainfall compared to valleys below. Please be mindful of this when moving around the area.
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Winds To Pick Up Late Sunday
The winds will pick up late Saturday night as the mechanisms of the front finally being to push through. This could blow off some fall foliage unfortunately. Winds will gust over 35 mph in the valleys around Asheville, but higher elevations above 3500’ could see gusts over 50mph. Below you can see the NAM 3km projected wind gusts early Sunday AM around WNC.
Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Sunday Afternoon Choice Time To Leaf Peep
If you are looking for the best time to leaf look, it appears that the front will clear sometime in the morning on Sunday, and partly cloudy skies are possible into Sunday afternoon around WNC. So, if you are looking for a time to plan your trip to the area to see the peak color, then Sunday is your day! The morning hours could be dreary, but some blue skies will certainly be possible in the afternoon. Get out and enjoy it, and check out the WNC Webcams to see the colors change live!