Tropics Heating Up Again, Moisture Could Affect WNC Late Next Week
Gulf Coast Taking Notice
Models have been keying on an easterly wave propagating itself into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days where the pressure could deepen. We could then see Tropical Storm or even Hurricane Michael develop. From there, it becomes a very difficult forecast.. but that is the case with all tropical depressions, so bare with the meteorological community over the next week.
Where Michael Goes?
A very strong trough will collide with Michael as it comes ashore, and that will likely move the storm off to the north and east. Right now, thats about all we know. Most models make landfall with the storm sometime Wednesday along the Gulf Coast, but a lot can change over the next 6 days. Models have been keying on this chance for development though for the past 3 days (see my last article), so I feel the threat for tropical development here is very real. Looking below you can see how the 12z GFS shows a strong storm making landfall around Panama City, FL. The Euro on the other hand, has a much weaker storm that stalls out somewhat around Mobile, AL. So what the GFS shows, is nothing like what the European model shows. One shows a fast moving storm getting picked up by the trough and moving through GA/SC/NC after landfall (GFS), the other shows less interaction with the trough, and with a lazy path through the South (Euro). That being said, this is obviously a very complicated forecast, so please just know that it is something to watch at this point in time.
12z GFS Wednesday Evening
Will Michael Affect WNC?
Of course, there is great uncertainty. I know thats not what you want to read.. but its the truth. What I find peculiar, is that WNC gets rainfall, regardless of how the scenario unfolds. Each model solution gives the area multiple inches of rainfall to end the week next week, so that tells me that this storm can tracks a few different ways and still hit WNC. We usually get our most impactful tropical systems from the Gulf, and that appears to be where this storm will originate. The main takeaway from this article, is that rainfall is to be expected next week, and we have another tropical system to track. I hope you have a great weekend!
12z GFS Thursday Afternoon